Hectic parleying, boycotts and incommunicado seems to be the theme outside JJ` residence in Poes garden. Immediately after she unilaterally announced the 160 seats in which ADMK were going to contest, the coalition partners were miffed and it looked as though a 3rd front is about to emerge in TN. If reports are to be believed, it was the Vaiko -Snub , which prompted the CPI,CPI(m) and DMDK leaders to cohere and come up with a alternative front in TN.
IMHO, formation of a 3rd front would dent ADMK chances and more than that it would boost DMKs chances in the upcoming elections. In the 2009 LS, DMDK 8 % vote share made the swing in favor of DMK in all the 40 seats. The win-loss margin for the DMK was less or almost equal to the votes polled by DMDK. It would have been suicidal for the ADMK to let go of DMDK at this juncture. Though DMDK got its share , MDMK seems to be the most affected of the lot. MDMK won only 9 of the 35 seats it contested in the earlier assembly polls and JJ was not willing to negotiate for more than 11-12 seats, but Vaiko wanted minimum of 20.
Its high time JJ realizes her arrogance and brash way of handling things (even though it might make sense) no longer works the way it used to. She should come down few steps and use Viveham more than Vekam. Even before the elections, if this is how she plans to treat her partners, things would get really messy during manifesto release and campaigning. The “limelight/attention” factor , CM candidature , seat/power sharing would really depend on how astutely JJ handles the alliance. Its her calculation that MDMK is no longer a vote force beyond core LTTE sympathizers and DMDK adds more value to her campaign even though captain is only few years old in politics. The communists as always trying to use someone else position to push for their own needs. It is in the best if ADMK sticks with DMDK and the communists at the cost of MDMK. MDMK now has nowhere else to go. Third front considering MDMK, communists and DMDK would just end up as vote splitters and not king makers as they envision. The Dinamalar cartoon aptly summarizes the ringa-ringa roses action happening in Poes garden
Within the next day or two, we shall probably get a cleaner view of whats happening with the ADMK alliance. If the alliance stick together and manage not to implode and run a decent campaign, they can topple the applecart of the DMK combine. 130-160 (ADMK+): 86-104 (DMK+) is my guess right now. If the ADMK alliance implode or fail and a third front is formed , the chances are bright for the DMK to easily become the single largest party and continue the alliance with Congress.
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